Savills Research – Review and Outlook 2024
Northern
Ireland Market
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
Outlook for 2024
The 2024 investment market will be partially marked
by the property owners who are set to see a large
quantum of debt mature in the context of the higher
interest rate environment. They are facing higher
debt costs and lower equity values, leaving them in a
challenging position as upcoming refinancing events
start to take hold. We expect this will lead to a number
of distressed assets coming to the market over the
next few quarters. Motivated sellers have less pricing
power than discretionary sellers, which will support
price discovery in the market and expediate any
further value corrections. This in turn has the potential
to raise transaction volumes, leading to acquisition
opportunities for investors in the year ahead.
Investment deals to pick up as refinancing events emerge
Figure 1: Movement in the Bank of England’s
base rate
Source: Bank of England
1
High levels of inflation have led the Bank of England to
raise interest rates 14 times since December 2021. At that
time, the base rate was just 0.25% but this has since been
raised by 500 basis points to 5.25% as of August 2023.
The Monetary Policy Committee has subsequently kept
rates on hold, reflecting the sharp slowdown in consumer
price inflation which fell from a peak of 11.1% y/y in October
2022 to 4.2% y/y by January this year. Although inflation
remains above target, attention is turning to when the
first interest rate cut will be made. Given the UK’s weak
economic performance in 2023, pressure is mounting
on a rate cut. Nevertheless, the ongoing geopolitical
fragmentation in the Middle East, combined with new
post-Brexit border controls, have the potential to put
upward pressure on prices. Notwithstanding, expectations
are for the Bank to begin reducing rates from mid-year.
In the meantime, we anticipate that equity rich investors
who are able to secure discounts on core stock before the
competition returns, will be rewarded.
Uncertain interest rate outlook
amid geopolitical tensions
202220212020
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
With the Belfast Department oce development
pipeline to be considerably limited in the period
ahead, we expect to see the rental gap between
prime and secondary space continue to widen –
especially as best-in-class availabilities become more
competitive to secure. The pandemic-related trend
for greater flexibility on leases will continue in the
year ahead, as well as the flight to prime as occupiers
seek to attract sta back into the oce.
Furthermore, we expect take-up to increase in
2024 as deals which were pushed out last year are
completed and market requirements continue to be
fulfilled. As such, we predict that headline rents for
new Grade A stock will rise from £25.00-£27.00 psf
currently to £30.00 psf within the next 24 months.
ESG will continue to dominate investor and occupier
considerations in 2024. Investing in green buildings
now will save on the future cost of selling an asset at a
discounted price or engaging in expensive retrofitting
work on older stock in an attempt to maintain
competitiveness in the market. However, despite the
benefits, one of the main barriers to upgrading standing
stock to meet regulations is the high cost of construction,
albeit material prices have been declining in recent
months. In times of economic downturn, ESG retrofits
may be delayed or scaled back and those assets that
do not match the environmental goals of investors and
occupiers will be increasingly marginalised. Landlords will
thus have to invest substantial capital into their existing
stock to meet these ESG requirements if they wish to
remain relevant.
Belfast prime offices to
reach £30 psf
Assets with poor environmental
credentials to be marginalised
3
4
Source: Dept. for Business and Trade
Figure 2: Trend in material price index
202220212020 2023
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
Figure 4: Investment turnover, quarterly
Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research
Table 1: Top five investment deals
Property Quarter Price Vendor Purchaser Sector
Rushmere Shopping Centre and Retail Park, Craigavon* Q1 £46.5m Central Craigavon Ltd Killahoey Limited Retail
Forestside Shopping Centre, Belfast, BT8 6FX* Q3 £42.0m Kildare Management Ltd Private local investor Retail
Abbey Retail Park, Newtownabbey Q3 £40.6m Slate Asset Management Realty Income Retail
Foyleside Shopping Centre* Q3 £27.0m Kildare Management Ltd Private local investor Retail
Bedford House, Belfast* Q2 £20.1m Ulster Estates Ltd Private local investor Oce
Source: Savills Research
Figure 3: Investment turnover
2023 will be remembered for stubbornly high levels of inflation, interest rates at
a 15-year high and elevated investor caution. Nonetheless, investment volumes
in Northern Ireland exceeded £334.0 million in 2023, which was the highest
annual turnover since 2017 and well above the five-year average of £262.0
million. This is an encouraging result despite the significant market headwinds
experienced throughout the course of last year. We remain optimistic for the
year ahead and expect property investors to benefit from more opportunities
than they did last year, albeit the political landscape and interest rate story will
shape the course of activity.
QUARTERLY VOLUMES EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SWINGS
The rollover of agreed deals from the tail-end of 2022 together with a re-
supply resulted in a strong start to the year with total investment volumes
of £129.6 million in Q1 2023. This was 30% higher than the total of £100.0
million recorded in Q1 2022. Key transactions within Q1 included Savills’ sale of
Rushmere Shopping Centre and Retail Park, Craigavon, to Killahoey Limited
for £46.5 million at a NIY of 14.7%, as well as Target Healthcare REIT’s £22.0
million sale of a portfolio of four care homes to an undisclosed purchaser.
The market retracted in Q2 with a total investment volume of £27.4 million.
The wider macroeconomic context began to bite as higher interest rates
significantly raised the cost of debt. Between February 2022 and August 2023,
the Bank of England raised the base rate from 0.5% to 5.25%. The largest deal
in Q2 was Ulster Estate Limited's sale of Bedford House, acquired by Savills for
a private local investor for £20.1 million, representing a NIY of 7.3%.
There was a bounce back in activity in Q3 with a total investment spend
of £130.2 million, which was more than 80% above the five-year quarterly
average. The largest deal in Q3 was Savills’ sale of Forestside Shopping
Centre to a private local investor for £42.0 million, reflecting a NIY of 7.91%,
closely followed by the sale of Abbey Retail Park to US based Realty Income
for £40.6 million reflecting a NIY of 7.46%. Investment activity in Q4 then
contracted to £47.0 million, which was down 73% on the same period last
year. Looking ahead, there are a number of large profile deals on the market
in 2024 to include Savills’ sale of Bloomfield Shopping Centre and Retail Park,
due to complete in Q1, which will ensure a strong start to the year.
Investment
Turnover hits six-year high
*Savills involved
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
RETAIL THE MOST POPULAR SECTOR IN 2023
Retail has proven to be the mainstay of the NI commercial property market with
a total investment volume of £214.2 million in 2023, representing a 64% market
share. While Savills’ sale of Rushmere Shopping Centre and Retail Park was the
largest transaction within the sector, other notable transactions included Savills’
sales of both Foyleside Shopping Centre, Derry / Londonderry, to a local property
company for £27.0 million at a NIY of 14.49%, and Riverside Retail Park, Coleraine,
to Magmel Properties for £10.3 million at a NIY of 6.91%. Opportunistic investors
will continue to be attracted to parts of the retail market by the high yields on
oer, but moving forward in 2024, we anticipate some prime yield hardening in
the sector. Oces accounted for 18% of turnover last year, with a total investment
volume of £60.5 million. Oce values continued to decrease over the year,
although demand remains for prime oces with strong ESG credentials – albeit
there is a lack of supply of these assets. Investors are grappling with the rise in the
cost of capex, particularly when trying to meet sustainability expectations and
standards. This is generating additional cost at a time of market disruption and
having a further negative impact on oce investment values.
Industrial will always be a small share of the total, albeit this trend has been
compounded by the insucient level of stock as opposed to a lack of demand. The
industrial sector accounted for only 8% of deal volumes at £28.3 million. This was
underpinned by a significant o-market transaction involving a sale and leaseback in
County Down at a NIY of 7.10%, which was the third largest industrial deal on record.
PRIVATE INVESTORS FILL VOID LEFT BY INSTITUTIONS
Private local investors were the most active buyer type in 2023. This reflects the fact
that NI’s commercial real estate investment landscape has changed dramatically
since the UK’s referendum on EU membership in 2016. Prior to this, institutional
investors accounted for a significant volume of transactions in any given year. After
Brexit, UK institutional investment ground to a halt as investors took to the sidelines
amid the ensuing political turmoil. While institutional investors remain unconvinced
that this turmoil is over, the resultant void has been filled by property companies,
high net worth individuals and private equity investors.
For a few years now, these investors have identified better yields on NI real estate
when compared to the GB or ROI markets. With soaring inflation squeezing real
rates of return, investors have viewed the region as a value play. Most investors
active in the NI market take a contrary view on Brexit, viewing the region as uniquely
positioned as a gateway between the EU and the UK. While the Investment Summit
held last September showcased many of the success stories in the province, it also
highlighted how NI’s unique position in the global market is not being leveraged by
institutional investors due to political instability. The restoration of Stormont earlier
this year should, nevertheless, help to alleviate some of that concern.
Figure 5: Investment by sector
Source: Savills Research
Retail: 64%
Oce: 18%
8%
Other: 9%
Foyleside Shopping Centre, Derry Londonderry
Rushmere Shopping Centre and Retail Park, Craigavon
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
Consumers have been challenged by high levels of inflation over the past two
years and ensuing cost-of-living crisis. While nominal earnings grew by 7.4%
last year, inflation-adjusted real earnings declined by 0.3%. Despite this, the NI
retail market has remained strong, with Belfast city centre experiencing a flurry
of retail-led developments. These included The Keep, Castle Lane, which will
handover later this year. As part of this, pre-lets have completed to Deichmann
Shoes – its first store in NI – and H&M, which is opening a new flagship store
in the city centre. Elsewhere, River Island consolidated its two existing Belfast
stores and merged the former Clarks Shoes and Disney Store on Donegall Place
to form its new concept store. Another notable transaction was the relocation
of Accessorize from Victoria Square. Within Queen’s Arcade, Tudor opened
its first dedicated boutique in the region, partnering with Lunn’s Jewellers and
complementing the openings of luxury brands Gucci, Breitling and Montblanc
last year.
MUCH MOVEMENT ACROSS SHOPPING CENTRES
CastleCourt and Victoria Square welcomed a number of new occupiers
and expansions last year. At CastleCourt, New Look moved into the former
Debenham’s box, taking 8,000 sq ft, while Miniso opened its debut NI store.
Poundland opened a new flagship store in the city centre after expanding
into an 18,000 sq ft unit. Mun Break acquired its first city centre unit as well,
adding to the city’s food and beverage oering. At Victoria Square, The White
Company and Slims Chicken moved in. Rituals also upsized to a 3,500 sq ft
unit – one of its largest stores in the UK.
There was sustained occupier activity in the provincial shopping centres,
with Rushmere seeing the opening of Waterstones and Primark. Waterstones
also agreed a deal in Bloomfield Shopping Centre, Bangor, which will open this
year. Superdrug is planning to double the size of its unit within Rushmere mall.
Miniso acquired units in Tower Centre, Ballymena, and Rushmere, following its
opening in CastleCourt, and plans to expand further this year.
Among the largest retail deals completed in either the UK or Ireland in
2023 was the letting of 110,000 sq ft at the newly developed Dobbies Garden
Centre at The Junction Retail and Leisure Park in Antrim. Elsewhere, Primark
exchanged a deal on 26,100 sq ft at Fairhill Shopping Centre as part of its
£7.0 million redevelopment; this is due to open in 2025. River Island relocated
within Fairhill and opened its new store in November.
Retail
Sector welcomes new entrants and expansions
Dobbies Garden Centre, The Junction Retail and Leisure Park, Co Antrim
Rituals, Victoria Square, Belfast
Figure 6: Earnings growth
Source: NISRA
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
FOOD AND BEVERAGE
The food and beverage market continued to be very competitive in 2023 with
new entrants taking floor space in Belfast. Pret A Manger acquired its first store
in the region, moving into the former Patisserie Valerie premises on Donegall
Square West, while Caé Nero took the patisserie’s former Castle Lane store.
Tortilla entered the Belfast market with its first outlet on Arthur Square and
has plans to open further outlets across the city. It is also understood that Mary
Brown’s and Popeyes have agreed deals on several sites for 2024 openings –
their first forays into the market.
After opening its first successful outlet in Forestside, Jamaica Blue opened
the doors to its two-storey Belfast Cornmarket property, with plans to expand
the brand further in 2024. Bob & Berts has also acquired a new outlet on Ann
Street and will soon open in Pavilion Retail Park in Strabane. It otherwise remains
active throughout the UK.
Finally, the Odyssey Complex witnessed the arrival of three high profile
restaurant brands in 2023, namely Zizzi’s, Nando’s and Five Guys. Additional
brands are to be announced later in the year.
OUT-OF-TOWN RETAILERS GROW THEIR PRESENCE
The out-of-town retail and leisure market performed well last year, albeit there
was limited activity across some parks due to a lack of available or suitable sized
space. Notable transactions included Harry Corry’s acquisition of a second
store in Derry / Londonderry, where it opened 7,500 sq ft of space at Crescent
Link Retail Park. EZ Living opened an outlet store at Lesley Retail Park, Boucher
Road, which was in addition to its full price store at Bridgewater Retail Park,
Banbridge and Riverside Retail Park, Coleraine. The furniture retailer has also
exchanged a deal on the former DW Sports warehouse at Braidwater Retail
Park, Ballymena, which will open in summer 2024.
Boucher Road experienced a number of other new openings last year. These
included the opening of Jollyes Pets’ 14th store after it acquired the former
Lynas Food Outlet. B&M opened a larger store on the Boucher Road as well and
continues to seek other opportunities, along with discount operators Poundland
and Home Bargains. On Boucher Crescent, Polonez acquired a new store
extending to 6,000 sq ft. This was in addition to the Polish grocer’s opening of
a 4,000 sq ft store in Dungannon. Meanwhile, Lidl opened a flagship store in
Strabane in the latter part of last year and has a healthy pipeline for 2024.
Pure Gym is seeking new units across NI having last year opened a 12,000 sq
ft outlet at the Braidwater Retail Park, Ballymena. Space is also being sought by
food chains like Greggs, Costa and Starbucks. Rents for purpose-built schemes
along these roadside locations breached the £40.00 psf threshold last year.
This reflects the relative strength of the NI retail market where sales are growing
by 3.5% y/y, compared with -1.9% y/y in GB, figures from the NI Statistics and
Research Agency show (NISRA).
Forestside Shopping Centre, Belfast
Figure 7: Retail sales index
Source: NISRA
Table 2: Top five retail deals
Property Quarter Sq ft Tenant Sector
The Junction,
Co Antrim
Q4 110,000 Dobbies
Fashion
Outlet
Centre
Boucher
Shopping
Park, Belfast
Q4 60,000 Frasers
Retail
Park
Railway
Retail Park,
Strabane
Q4 38,000 Lidl
Retail
Park
Balmoral
Plaza, Belfast
Q1 30,000 B+M
Retail
Park
CastleCourt,
Belfast
Q2 18,000 Poundland
Shopping
Centre
Source: Savills Research
NI GB
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
The Belfast oce market experienced an increase in enquiries and viewing
activity in 2023, albeit take-up remained subdued at 261,500 sq ft. This
was 31% below the ten-year average annual figure of 381,000 sq ft, and
down 17% on the preceding year. Although we have seen a steady stream of
requirements coming through the market with occupiers ready to commit to
new space, their activity can involve downsizing into higher quality oces.
This has led to a situation where the number of transactions has held steady at
53, while the volume of space demanded has declined.
A breakout of the data by quarter shows take-up in Q1 and Q2 was 67,400
sq ft and 82,600 sq ft, respectively. While Q1 recorded 11 transactions, Q2 saw
a further 15. In Q3, 38,100 sq ft was taken across 12 deals, with activity picking
up again in Q4 when 73,300 sq ft was leased across 15 transactions.
The largest deal of the year was the leasing of 27,600 sq ft by a confidential
tech company within City Quays 3. This was followed by the letting of 16,700
sq ft at The Ewart Building to the financial services firm, Just Group. The third
biggest was Cathedral Eye Clinic’s signing for 14,800 sq ft at 84-94 Great
Patrick Street.
LIMITED SUPPLY TO RAISE PRESSURE ON RENTS
Last year saw the delivery of 650,000 sq ft across Belfast following the
completions of The Ewart, Olympic House in the Titanic Quarter, Belfast
Harbour’s City Quays 3 and The Paper Exchange. As predicted, these
developments have begun to let from the top down and, with no new
developments planned for the city centre, we are soon going to see significant
upward pressure on rents. Although there is about 1.7 million sq ft of vacant
oce space across Belfast, much of this is dated and in need of substantial
investment if it is going to attract and command the asking rents.
Demand for prime Grade A oce space has grown as predicted in 2023,
with top down lettings across new completions limiting the already stretched
level of supply. Occupiers want the right asset in the right location but the
lack of development for the foreseeable future means these opportunities
remain scarce. While a limited number of refurbishments are due to complete
early this year, they include the Pearl Assurance Building and Printworks.
Overall, the limited level of supply has widened the rental gap between old
and new stock.
The tone of oce rents has remained positive, with new build space
commanding rents in the range of £25.00-£27.00 psf. Rental packages are
commonly six months’ rent free for a five-year lease and 12-18 months for a
10-year lease.
Belfast oces
Deals keep pace despite lower volumes
Figure 9: Take-up by size category
Figure 8: Oce take-up, sq ft
Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research
Table 3: Top five oce deals
Property Quarter Sq ft Tenant
City Quays 3, Belfast Q2 27,600 Private
The Ewart, Belfast Q2 16,700 Just Group
84-91 Great Patrick St, Belfast Q1 14,800 Cathedral Eye Clinic
City Quays 3, Belfast Q4 12,900 B-Secur
The Paper Exchange, Belfast Q4 12,400 Private
Source: Savills Research
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
SMALL DEAL SIZES GROWING IN POPULARITY
Delving into more of the detail on the size of deals completed shows that the
highest number of transactions was for small parcels of space of up to 5,000 sq
ft, at 34 deals amounting to a total of 82,500 sq ft during the year. There were
13 deals totalling 83,800 sq ft for floorspace of between 5,000-10,000 sq ft.
Finally, six deals were completed across oces sized between 10,000-50,000
and amounting to 95,200 sq ft. Four of these deals took place in the first half of
the year, with the other two occurring in the second half.
The popularity of the 10,000-50,000 size category fell from 2022, when
eight transactions occurred across 162,500 sq ft. Meanwhile, the fact that
the small size category has grown over the past year adds to evidence that
occupiers are adjusting their space requirements.
TECH REMAINS THE KEY PLAYER
On a sectoral basis, tech accounted for the largest share of space taken at 25%,
or 64,700 sq ft. Tech’s volume of take-up was largely unchanged from 2022,
although the average transaction size fell from 7,300 sq ft to 5,400 sq ft. The
second highest share of take-up was attributable to financial services at 21%, or
56,200 sq ft. This was followed by professional services at 15%, or 40,200 sq ft.
The average deal size for professional services also declined from 4,700 sq ft in
2022 to 3,100 sq ft last year. Health, legal and real estate accounted for shares
of 11%, 8% and 5%, respectively, while the public sector made up 2%.
OCCUPIERS INVESTING MORE IN FIT-OUTS
Occupiers continue to focus on quality, sustainable space that encourages sta
to have a more physical presence in the oce. Many companies now also realise
the importance of providing high quality and unique spaces that can compete
with the comforts of working from home. This trend will only become more
prevalent as occupiers increasingly recognise and improve their understanding
of specification, energy performance and decarbonisation. As a result, we are
seeing an increase in the amount of capital being spent on fit-outs which have
the potential to attract and retain talent.
Figure 10: Oce take-up by sector
Source: Savills Research
35 Donegall Place, Belfast
Tech: 25%
Other: 28%
Prof. Services: 15%
Health: 11%
Financial: 21%
The Paper Exchange (interior), Belfast
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
The Northern Ireland industrial and logistics sector has been significantly
restricted by the lack of supply of new stock, as well as the limited availability
of existing stock, to the market. On top of this, much of the stock which is
currently available is not fit-for-purpose or is in need of refurbishment or
replacement. At the same time, design and build projects have been growing
in popularity due to the limited level of high-quality existing space.
Development sites which can support the size requirement for current
occupiers are few and far between, indicating that councils need to provide
further support to achieve the level of supply needed within this sector.
That said, take-up within the sector totalled 744,900 sq ft in 2023, of
which 70% – or 523,000 sq ft – was leased and the remaining 30% was sold.
A breakdown of the figures further shows that take-up was fairly consistent
throughout the first three quarters of the year at 222,800 sq ft, 256,100 sq ft
and 230,300 sq ft in Q1, Q2 and Q3, respectively. However, the amount of
space taken in Q4 was much lower at only 35,700 sq ft.
The three biggest deals of the year by amount of space taken were: the
letting of 204,200 sq ft at Nutts Corner Business Park, Crumlin, to the food
distributor, Sysco; the sale of 134,500 sq ft at Ballyoran Lane, Belfast, to a
private occupier and, the letting of 76,100 at The Logistics Building,
Ballymena, to UDS Freight.
MARKET CONDITIONS DISCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT
Rents have remained steady over the past year, standing at £6.50 psf for
good quality industrial stock, with prime new builds achieving between
£9.00-£10.00 psf. These relatively low rent levels, combined with high
build costs, are discouraging developers from the market – placing further
constraints on the supply pipeline. There is nevertheless demand for space,
particularly in terms of well-located good quality stock. In particular, we are
witnessing demand for space which is in close proximity to Belfast and along
the corridor between Belfast and Dublin. A number of occupiers, especially
those in the food distribution and manufacturing sectors, have also been
attracted to NI because of the unique access it oers to both the UK and EU
single markets, facilitating smoother trade.
As with the other commercial property sectors, ESG is a major consideration
for occupiers. Tenants now understand that although they pay a premium for
new build stock, there are potentially long-term savings to be had due to the
quality and energy eciency of these buildings. The higher quality of the space
can also be a factor in attracting new sta and retaining existing employees.
Industrial
More development sites need to be approved
Figure 12: Take-up by type
Figure 11: Industrial take-up by quarter, sq ft
Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research
0
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Let: 70%
Sold: 30%
Table 4: Top five industrial and logistics deals
Property Quarter Sq ft Tenant Type
Nutts Corner Business Park Q1 204,400 Sysco 3PL
Ballyoran Lane, Dundonald Q2 134,500 Private n/a
The Logistics Building,
Ballymena
Q2 76,100 UDS Freight 3PL
64 Old Moy Road,
Dungannon
Q3 56,900 Private n/a
Block F, Knockmore
Industrial Estate, Lisburn
Q3 32,600 Private n/a
Source: Savills Research
Block F, Knockmore Industrial Estate, Lisburn
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Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
NI house price inflation slowed from 10.1% y/y in Q4 2022 to 1.4% y/y in Q4
2023, figures from NISRA show, increasing from £175,100 to £177,600 over
the same period. Breaking the data out by type shows that house price
inflation for new builds is much stronger at 6.9% y/y, however, compared
to 0.3% y/y for existing dwellings. The respective average sales prices are
£219,100 and £168,100. Despite this, the rate of price growth across new
homes has slowed from 10.6% y/y a year ago, while existing dwellings have
come down much more sharply from 10.0% in Q4 2022.
The slowdown in house price growth is reflective of the slowdown in
demand, with the number of homes sold in 2023 down 16.5% on the preceding
year, albeit this figure is subject to downward revision. At 20.5%, the majority
of sales occurred in Belfast, with the second most active location being
Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon. With just 4.2% of sales, the least
active location was Fermanagh and Omagh. Overall, the weakened demand
comes in the context of strong general inflation and the high interest rate
environment, which have heaped pressure on household finances.
On the supply side, NISRA data show there were 6,841 new dwelling
completions in 2022, which was down 7.9% on the previous year. The latest
data include completions for Q1 2023, which came to 1,225 – down 25.8% on
the opening quarter of the preceding year. Housing output has been declining
for seven consecutive quarters, likely reflecting elevated interest rates which
are raising the cost of borrowing for would-be developers.
BUYER CONFIDENCE TO IMPROVE AS RATES STAY ON HOLD
The NI housing market remained resilient throughout 2023 despite the
challenging market conditions. Assuming the Bank of England keeps the base
rate on hold, we would expect mortgage rates to hold in response, and for
buyer confidence to improve. The continued limited supply of new housing
will raise competition in the market and support prices. Nevertheless, there
remains the possibility of further base rate increases if inflation fails to slow
further. On the flipside, rates could come down sooner than anticipated given
weak economic growth over the past two quarters. While this would ease the
cost of borrowing, the risk is that a significant recession would result in job
losses, albeit there are few signs that such a severe scenario is on the cards.
Residential
New homes prices are growing strongly
Figure 13: Northern Ireland house price index
Source: NISRA
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savills.ie/research
Northern Ireland Market Review and Outlook 2024
Ben Turtle
Head of Oce
+44 (28) 9026 8006
ben.turtle@savills.ie
John Ring
Director, Research
+353 (0) 1 618 1431
john.ring@savills.ie
Natasha Browne
Senior Research Analyst
+353 (0) 1 618 1773
Natasha.Browne@savills.ie
Please contact us for
further information
Savills team