Developing risk professionals
Institute of Risk Management
An introduction to
emerging risks and how
to identify them
IRM Charities Special
Interest Group Report
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Contents
About the Institute of Risk Management 3
About the Charities Special Interest Group 3
About this guide 4
Foreword 5
Definitions 6
What constitutes an emerging risk? 7
Why should organisations tackle emerging risks? 9
Why do organisations avoid tackling emerging risks? 9
Who should be involved in the emerging risk management process? 10
Techniques for identifying emerging risks 11
PESTLE Analysis 11
SWOT Analysis 12
Horizon Scanning 13
Appendix One: Example of identifying emerging risks using horizon scanning 14
Appendix Two: Emerging risks identified by others 15
Further reading 18
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About the Institute of Risk Management
About the Charities Special Interest Group
The Institute of Risk Management (IRM) is the leading professional body for Enterprise Risk Management
(ERM). We drive excellence in managing risk to ensure organisations are ready for the opportunities
and threats of the future. We do this by providing internationally recognised qualications and training,
publishing research and guidance, and setting professional standards.
For over 30 years our qualications have been the global choice of qualication for risk professionals and
their employers. We are a not-for-prot body, with members working in all industries, in all risk disciplines and
in all sectors around the world. In 2019, the IRM welcomed the Institute of Operational Risk (IOR) into the
IRM group
The IRM Charities Special Interest Group (SIG) was established over 15 years ago to provide practical
guidance for charities about managing risk and opportunities for sharing knowledge, tips and best practice
amongst sector professionals.
Our overall aim is to increase the sector’s knowledge of risk management best practice, explore practical
solutions for managing sector challenges, and provide a forum where risk professionals can meet (virtually or
face-to-face) to learn from one another and share up to date risk management practice.
To join the Charities SIG or for additional information, please look at our web page: www.theirm.org/charities
If you have any questions about IRM Special Interest Groups, please send an email to
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This guide is a companion to our guide Getting Started with Risk Management, which follows ISO31000 as
the international standard for managing risk.
This publication is the rst of a series (issued separately over a period of months) exploring how to identify
and tackle emerging risks, as well as embedding the process of emerging risk management within an
organisation. As always, our emphasis is on developing practical tools and techniques to support the person
with responsibility for risk management, whether risk practitioners or individuals with risk management
responsibilities.
Our authors
The following risk practitioners have authored this publication as members of the Emerging Risk Working
Group, a part of the IRM Charities SIG.
> Ahmed Salim, Deloitte & Football Beyond Borders
> Alyson Pepperill CFIRM, Gallagher Insurance and Chair of IRM Charities SIG
> Charles Mitchell, Cancer Research UK
> Charlotte Candy CMIRM, AECOM
> Jill Long, Teenage Cancer Trust
> Marilyn Acker, Interim Finance & Audit Management
> Paula Karlsson-Brown, University of Glasgow and SIG team member
> Roberta Beaton IRMCert, NMC and SIG team member
> Sarah Nolan, Charity Risk and Assurance Professional
> Sophie Walsh, Oxfam
> Steve Brown GradIRM, Alzheimer’s Society and SIG team member
> Steve Grifths, Alzheimer’s Society and SIG team member
> Tracey Lumsden, Cancer Research UK
About this guide
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Foreword
Welcome to our sixth guide designed to help charities make sense of risk management, and the rst of a
series (published over several months) on the topic of emerging risk.
People often view risk management as a complex discipline – but we beg to differ and offer practical
information to help your organisation manage risk.
Our Getting started leaet, and supplementary guidance demonstrated that risk management is something
often undertaken intuitively. With a little structure risk management can be embedded into an organisation
to help it achieve objectives, support successful strategic planning and reassure people at all levels within
and outside the organisation that uncertainty and risk are being considered and managed appropriately.
Integrating risk management into strategic planning can also result in the identication of new and different
opportunities.
In this series of guides, we tackle the management of emerging risks and how to identify, assess, manage
and embed techniques to develop an ongoing emerging risk management process.
If you are looking for further guidance about risk management, please refer to our other publications:
> Getting started: How to set up risk management framework
> Getting better: Understanding your risk maturity
> Setting your risk appetite: Understanding your appetite for risk
> Risk governance for charities: How to structure your organisation to make risk management successful
> Tools for providing assurance on regulatory compliance: Assuring your legal and regulatory compliance
regime
The world does not stand still for any organisation. Those that have processes ready to respond to change
are generally more resilient than those that do not.
The world of risk management is continuously evolving and adapting to change. Our aim with this
publication is to support the sector to survive and thrive, enabling charities to innovate and react with agility
to change rather than to stagnate and rely on the ‘same old, same old’.
Some may ask why you need to manage emerging risk differently than ‘business as usual’ risks. It is true
that the risk management process detailed in ISO31000 remains valid for the management of emerging
risks.
Nevertheless, the general atmosphere of fear and/or mystique around an emerging risk that remains just
over the horizon, makes us feel uncomfortable. There is often little or no data on which to base the risk
response. Emerging risks may appear more challenging to identify, assess and manage.
The use of different tools and techniques in addition to traditional methods, will help you work through
these difculties. It is clear that for an organisation to perform successfully and be resilient, there needs to be
an appropriate approach to managing emerging risks.
This is why we selected this topic for our 2020 and 2021 publication guides. The choice feels appropriate
given the uncertain times we are living in, and the challenges presented to many of the assumptions that
underpin traditional risk management thinking and techniques (e.g. our ability to predict risks).
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Denitions
Term Denition
Emerging risk A risk that is evolving in areas and ways where the body of available knowledge is
weak.
External risk A risk outside of the organisation and outside its control.
Horizon Scanning A systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks,
emerging issues, and opportunities.
Internal risk A risk from within the organisation and within its control.
Magnitude The enormity of a risk in terms of its impact.
Resilience The ability of an organisation to anticipate, prepare for and respond to change to
survive and prosper.
Risk Effect of uncertainty on objectives.
Risk management Any activity undertaken to identify and then control the level of risk.
Stakeholder A person, group or organisation with an interest in the charity.
Time Horizon The period during which risks are considered. This may be 1-3 years, 3-5 years, and
longer.
Volatility A measure of the uctuation of a risk over time.
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Emerging risks have characteristics that differentiate them from ‘business as usual’ risks. These
characteristics of emerging risks are reviewed using the Covid-19 pandemic as an example.
Emerging risks may arise and evolve quickly, unexpectedly, or both. The emerging risk may never happen at
all. Emerging risks may have a massive economic loss potential at a macro level for society and subsequently
may impact charities directly or indirectly.
There are generally three categories of emerging risks
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1. A new risk in a known context: Risks that emerge in the external environment and impact the
organisation’s existing activities. For example, you were aware that regulations relating to your activities
will change next year.
1
Hopkin, P. (2018) Fundamentals of Risk Management: Understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management.
5th edition. IRM. Kogan Page: New York.
What constitutes an emerging risk?
Characteristic Notes and examples
Ambiguous The risk itself is difcult to dene.
Covid-19: Experts recognised that a pandemic was likely but could not describe how,
when or even if before the event occurring.
Chaotic Emerging risks are constantly changing.
Covid-19: As the risk and our understanding develops, government handling of
Covid-19 has changed around lockdowns, face coverings and social distancing,
creating a chaotic economy and social environment.
Complex Emerging risks can affect a large number of factors simultaneously.
Covid-19: The effect of the pandemic on economies may lead to recession
amplifying the impact of falling income levels and unemployment.
Time-horizon can
change
Emerging risks sometimes seem a long way off, but the time-horizon can change
very quickly.
Covid-19: A pandemic seemed a long way off to many, and then Covid-19 started
to spread from continent-to-continent over a relatively short period of a few
months.
Uncertain The lack of knowledge about what an emerging risk will become and how it will play
out makes them difcult to consider with certainty.
Covid-19: Pandemic risk is an excellent example of uncertainty leading to many
taking a few steps to consider the risk, despite experts warning for decades that the
risk existed.
Uncontrollable Emerging risks are often external to the organisation, and outside direct control, so
the need is to adapt and respond, rather than to control.
Covid-19: Organisations have had to adapt working practices and the work
environment to survive.
Volatile Signicant changes in the risk within a short period.
Using the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic as an example:: In the UK during the summer
months life was relatively ‘normal’ whereas in November we had to return to
lockdown.
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2
Hardy, C. & Maguire, S. (2020) Organizations, risk translation, and the ecology of risks: the discursive construction of a novel risk.
Academy of Management, Vol. 63(3), 685-716.
2. A known risk in a new context: The management of a risk may need to change if you venture into a new
activity. For example, your charity already works with vulnerable adults and decides to start running a
crèche for the children of employees and volunteers by the end of their current strategy.
3. A new risk in a new context: Risks not previously considered because the risk is new to the organisation.
Emerging risks may be difcult to manage as the assignment of risk ownership can be complex and unclear.
What organisations can do is translate the vagueness of an emerging risk into an organisational risk that
they are more familiar with, e.g. regulatory, strategic and operational risks. This makes it easier to take action
to tackle the risk, as it means that responsibility for the emerging risk can be redistributed to appropriate
levels and people within an organisation.
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This document explains the benets to organisations that recognise emerging risks. In short, following
through on preparing for emerging risks – not just identifying them – can make your organisation more
resilient and condent in the face of an uncertain future and can allow charities to adapt and thrive.
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Whilst traditional risk management focuses on supporting an organisation to achieve its objectives and
plans, tackling emerging risks enables an organisation to build and maintain resilience to ensure that it will
survive and even thrive in uncertain times.
Resilience can enable the organisation to:
i. Anticipate possible adverse scenarios or events, prepare for them, withstand or absorb their impacts,
recover from the effects and adapt to the changing conditions;
ii. Respond and adapt to opportunities and take prompt and informed decisions with condence.
Emerging risks are risks, and the usual risk management processes remain relevant. However, it is often
impossible to quantify likelihoods and impacts with certainty for emerging risks. The ‘ambiguous’
characteristic of emerging risks and the lack of information available to understand the risk make it difcult
to take decisions on a timely basis.
Historically many charities have side-lined emerging risks into the ‘too difcult’ bucket because they tend
to sit in the ‘low likelihood / high impact’ arena and fall beyond the short-term objectives that many
organisations prioritise.
If your senior management or Board are inexperienced in strategic planning or risk discussions, this can
present an additional challenge. Added to this are the pressure on leadership time and the tendency to
discuss only current issues as there is more information available. Adaption to General Data Protection
regulations serves as a reminder as to how embedded ‘current issue only’ behaviour can be.
We examine these challenges in more detail in our separate publication ‘The Leadership Conversation’.
The challenge of focusing on ‘current issues only’
The General Data Protection Regulation came into effect in 2016; the compliance deadline
was May 2018. Yet with almost two years to prepare, and known nancial penalties, many
organisations worked to the May 2018 deadline – a just-in-time response which put the
organisation at the risk of non-compliance.
This response was attributed to several factors including a sense of being overwhelmed by the
technical requirements to enact the change – considered as ‘negative panic’; a sense of myopia
when faced with the exponential nature of data and who holds it; and possibly also the ‘herd
instinct’ where organisations looked to their peers and followed whatever they were or were not
doing.
Why should organisations tackle emerging risks?
Why do organisations avoid tackling emerging risks?
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We outlined in our publication Risk Governance for Charities the types of governance structures that support
the development and embedding of risk management within different sized charities.
The Charity Commission publication CC26 states “Charity trustees should regularly review and assess the
risks faced by their charity in all areas of its work and plan for the management of those risks”. Therefore,
Trustees also need to be engaged in the process as they bring a broad outlook and experience to the table.
Bringing in external experts may also be benecial in helping the organisation to identify emerging risks.
These experts, who may provide advice on a pro bono basis can include accountants, technology experts
and representatives of umbrella bodies such as the IRM.
The conversation may not be an easy one, but it is essential to try and may work best if anchored in strategic
planning.
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Who should be involved in the emerging risk management
process?
3
Kaplan, R. & Mikes, A. (2012) Managing Risks: A New Framework. Available at:
https://hbr.org/2012/06/managing-risks-a-new-framework
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Identifying emerging risks can be difcult, but techniques exist to help, such as PESTLE, SWOT and horizon-
scanning. A charity can adopt one or more of these techniques as well as looking at external sources.
Please see the Appendix for some examples of output from authoritative bodies such as the World Economic
Forum (WEF) and the IRM. In addition, bear in mind that other organisations and umbrella bodies such as
the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales (ICAEW), Deloitte, and individual accountancy
rms may also have information available.
This section explores three popular techniques for identifying emerging risks. You may not need to use all
three. Some can be undertaken simultaneously as they are complementary, whereas others are most useful
as stand-alone exercises. We recommend you select one or more that works best within the context of your
organisation. We stress that all work best when a range of stakeholders and subject matter experts are
brought together to provide a broad range of insights and inputs.
PESTLE Analysis
What is it?
PESTLE Analysis helps you to identify external factors in the following categories:
> P - Political
> E - Economic
> S - Social
> T - Technological
> L - Legal
> E - Environmental
It can also provide a structure for horizon scanning.
Why use this technique?
The technique enables an organisation to think about potential emerging risks within categories. This often
helps people to think more broadly around specic topic areas.
How do you use this technique?
Techniques for identifying emerging risks
Step Process
Identify key
stakeholders
Gather relevant people to work together who have insights to make from a political,
economic, social, technological, legal and/or environmental perspective. See below
for more details on who should be involved.
Brief them Explain the context of the work, your strategic and project objectives so they can
prepare for the Review Meeting.
Review meeting Share, gather and review insights under each heading considering both internal and
external risks.
Meeting output Document the insights in terms of themes, issues and risks, e.g. using a table with
the PESTLE factors as headings. This is the current list of potential emerging risks to
monitor.
Reect and review After a suitable period of reection, bring the group back together to review and
conrm the emerging risks identied.
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Stakeholders to involve:
A large organisation could bring together stakeholders in roles such as Government Adviser (political),
Economics Adviser (economic), Policy Adviser (social), Data Protection Ofcer (technological), lawyer (legal)
and an environmentalist (environment) to share their insights.
Smaller charities may not have the range of employee roles that would enable a broad representation. To
overcome this, they might bring together the most relevant stakeholders from their trustees, professional
advisers and pro bono resources. These contacts may well provide additional external insights not considered
by employees.
SWOT Analysis
What is it?
SWOT analysis is a technique that can help an organisation understand its strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats.
Why use this technique?
SWOT analysis is a simple and recognisable approach that can be a useful framework for thinking about
the PESTLE factors. SWOT supports the identication of risks providing a broader perspective on factors that
could affect strategy or operations.
SWOT assists you in developing a good understanding of the impact and what can be done to minimise
adverse effects and maximise potential opportunities.
How do you use this technique?
Bring together relevant stakeholders and capture their insights, in a simple table. For example, if you are
focusing on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in relation to a particular PESTLE factor,
such as Legal, you would want to involve stakeholders with legal expertise.
Example scenario: We know of an emerging risk because the government has announced a critical
regulation that applies to our charity is going to signicantly change in a year’s time. This announcement
was made following some high prole cases of non-compliance with existing regulation and harm to
beneciaries. However, we don’t know any of the detail when we undertake our PESTLE/SWOT analysis.
The SWOT summarised below identies one of our key weaknesses, i.e. we are not good at complying with
the existing regulations and don’t have systems in place to monitor our compliance.
We suggest that those stakeholders relevant to the component of PESTLE under consideration be involved in
the discussion.
Strengths Weaknesses
Trustee board has recently appointed a trustee
champion for risk and compliance issues.
Our poor record on compliance with existing
regulations and lack of governance and assurance
systems.
Opportunities Threats
Use the upcoming regulatory change to improve our
compliance with all relevant regulations by setting
up an assurance system, which could be used for all
other rules that apply to our activities.
Stricter future regulations with increased nes for
non-compliance and negative media coverage.
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Horizon Scanning
What is it?
Horizon scanning is a technique used across a wide range of sectors to help identify a range of potential
issues and risks that could impact the organisation in the future as a result of the complex and connected
world in which the organisation operates.
We dene horizon scanning as a systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks,
emerging issues, and opportunities.
Horizon scanning can help an organisation foresee and examine risks immediately ahead of the
organisation, within timeframes, e.g. where is the emerging risk in the short, medium, and long term?
Why use this technique?
Horizon scanning can help an organisation:
> Deepen their understanding of the driving forces affecting future policy and strategy development;
> Identify gaps in understanding and risk areas for research to better understand the driving forces;
> Build consensus among a range of stakeholders about the issues and how to tackle them as well as
mobilising stakeholders to take action;
> Identify and clarify some of the difcult policy/strategy choices and trade-offs that may be needed in
the future;
> Create a new strategic approach that is resilient because it is adaptable to changing external conditions.
How do you use this technique?
The table and gure below are from the IRM Innovation SIG’s Horizon Planning publication. See their
publication for more in-depth workings.
Just like PESTLE and SWOT, horizon scanning needs to involve key stakeholders to work to an agreed timeline
in small groups or as individuals.
Concluding Note
We hope that, in the future, the charity sector will collaborate and work together to share best practice to
make emerging risk identication more manageable in terms of available resources, delivering higher levels
of analysis and insight than a single organisation can achieve on its own.
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Background to the example:
We are a national UK animal charity providing rehoming services, running charity shops and offering
education and advice about animal care.
When we considered emerging risks, we quickly realised they tended to sit in two camps:
1. Those that were inevitable but far away in terms of time although of a high impact if they happened.
2. Those where the timescale was probably shorter and would have a high impact.
Identication and Assessment:
Using horizon scanning as a tool, we identied a number of emerging risks, and through scenario testing and
a quick brainstorm, we assessed that the following risks are vital for us to consider further:
Appendix One: Example of identifying emerging risks using
horizon scanning
Topic Considerations
Climate Disaster and
Climate Change
> Weather changes could impact our operations and have a direct effect on how
we care for animals
> Changes to living patterns could help protect animals including strays
> Changes in the economic environment could put people off rehoming pets, i.e.
there would be fewer afuent people available
> Changes in the economic environment could be an opportunity if people have
more time and recognise the positive mental health aspects of having a pet
Articial Intelligence > What sort of job roles might disappear if AI takes off in our sector?
> What sort of people skills will we still need?
> What about people unable or unwilling to adapt to the new situation?
Microservices > Could a disruptive new way of offering animal rehoming emerge at a micro-
business level – will this be positive or negative for us?
> What opportunities might arise if we can harness this shift to online adoption
and recruitment of adopters?
Animal Pandemic > A series of animal pandemics could put people off rehoming and leave our
resources over-stretched if people don’t want to take on sick animals or animals
that may become sick
> Animal pandemics could stir up a high level of support and donations from the
general public, and possibly even the government if the strain was aggressive
and linked to pets rather than wild animals
Retail is changing > Online sales are rising, and the High Street is dying/changing in part driven by
uneconomic rents. How quickly do we need to change our charity shop strategy?
> Do we understand why people visit our shops? Can we make a visit to our shops
more of an experience?
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If you are interested in some topic areas to get the discussion started within your organisation, the table
below may help. Please see the Further Reading section for additional helpful reference sources.
Appendix Two: Emerging risks identied by others
Topic Considerations
Climate Disaster and
Climate Change
> These are sources of risk rather than a risk in themselves
> You need to think about how these affect you/matter to you
> This could be due to general security issues – could mass protests disrupt you?
Can you anticipate negative media attention because of what you do?
> What would the effect be on you?
> Weather-related damage
> Changes to living patterns (less ying, more recycling, etc.)
> Economic factors (reduced GDP, the effect on jobs, tax, etc.)
Articial Intelligence > AI will ultimately have an impact on jobs of all kinds
> AI will impact how future talent is developed
> Risks to social liberty and safety are associated with the increased use of AI
> There is potential for increased social exclusion with the increased use of AI
> AI may impact your organisation both positively and negatively
5G and Internet of
Things (IoT)
> 5G and IoT will enable machines to talk to other devices at rapid speed,
presenting opportunities for automation and increased programme capacity
> Unveried 5G concerns around radiation and possible health risks may impact
adaptation
> IoT risks around security and privacy may impact adaptation
New political
landscape e.g. Brexit
> There has been a clear shift in the political environment; nationalism is on the
rise
> Trade wars can affect countries and business within them
> Fake news inuences individual and collective decisions
> Shifting policies and strategic orientation give rise to stranded assets and staff
Microservices > Increasingly complex rms and services are emerging which operate wholly
online
> Apps to assemble new products and services are developed and launched
rapidly
Cyber Crime > Protecting data and nances is becoming an increasingly complex risk which
requires signicant expertise
> There is an increased incidence of ransomware attacks
> Criminals are developing and changing attacks; this is an emerging risk area
> Email scams are becoming more sophisticated
> The risk of cybercriminals accessing control systems, e.g. power and utilities,
ships and factories are increasing
> Criminals are currently focusing on data – as well as extortion
Retail is changing > Online sales are rising, and the High Street is dying/changing in part driven by
uneconomic rents
> Mall shopping in the US is changing to be more of an experience
> Fraud in online shopping is changing; abuse is a developing risk
> People re-using/re-wearing clothes; this is suppressing demand
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Future of nance? > Microservices are beginning to have a signicant impact, e.g. online-only banks
> Financial technology developments are creating new ways for people to pay for
goods and services
> Financial developments are focussed on new, young customers and how they
want to buy or use things
> New nancial models = unknown risks
Urban migration and
city living
> Globally there has been growth in people moving to cities and leaving rural
areas
> Support for rural populations is dwindling
> The impact of Covid-19 on city centres has changed city living and may change
urban migration patterns
Quantum devices/
computers
> The development of quantum computers will transform what we can do on a
computer
> Computers will become more problem solvers than merely programmed to do
tasks
> Security and privacy risks remain
Reputational risk and
intangibles
> Many risk professionals believe reputational risk is a consequence and not a risk
in its own right; nevertheless, reputation is hard-won and easily lost
> Intangible risks include the loss of public goodwill, patents, copyright, datasets,
licenses, trademarks, brand, equity and knowhow
> Dataset leakage leads to cyber-crime
Source: Emerging Risks 2020 webinar by Dr. Keith Smith 27/03/2020
Source: IRM Innovation SIG Horizon Scanning publication
The two risk maps presented here may provide additional topic areas for consideration, as well as
demonstrating visual ways of showing where risks sit in your organisation.
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BSI Organisational Resilience. Available at:
https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/our-services/Organizational-Resilience/
IRM (2015) Risk management for charities. Getting better. Available at:
https://www.theirm.org/media/9167/irm-getting-better-yer-nal-march-2016.pdf
IRM (2015) Risk management for charities. Getting better: Risk Maturity Framework. Available at:
https://www.theirm.org/media/4512/irm-charities-sig-risk-maturity-framework-nal.pdf
IRM (2016) Risk management for charities. Setting your risk appetite: supplementary guidance. Available at:
https://theirm.org/media/4519/irm-charities-sig-setting-risk-appetite-nal-updated-051016.pdf
IRM (2018) Horizon Scanning: A Practitioner’s Guide. Available at:
https://theirm.org/media/7423/horizon-scanning_nal2-1.pdf
IRM (2018) Risk governance for charities: How to structure your organisation to make risk management
successful. Available at: https://www.theirm.org/media/7412/risk-governance-for-charities_web.pdf
IRM (2018) Risk management for charities. Getting started: supplementary guidance. Version 2.0. Available
at: https://theirm.org/media/4513/irm-getting-started-v20-guide-2018.pdf
IRM (2018) Tools for providing assurance on regulatory compliance: Assuring your legal and regulatory
compliance regime. Available at:
https://www.theirm.org/media/8657/tools-for-providing-assurance-on-regulatory-compliance.pdf
IRM (2018) Tools for stakeholder mapping. Available at:
https://www.theirm.org/media/4516/stakeholder-mapping-2018.pdf
ISO (2018) ISO 31000 Risk management. Available at:
https://www.iso.org/iso-31000-risk-management.html
ISO ISO 31050 - Guidance for managing emerging risks to enhance resilience. Available at:
https://committee.iso.org/sites/tc262/home/projects/ongoing/iso-31022-guidelines-for-impl-2.html
The Charity Commission (2010) Charities and risk management (CC26). Available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/charities-and-risk-management-cc26/charities-and-risk-
management-cc26
World Economic Forum (2020) The Global Risks Report 2020. Available at:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf
Further reading
Developing risk professionals
Institute of Risk Management
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143–149 Fenchurch Street
London
EC3M 6BN
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